Tag Archive for 'Forrester Reserach'

The End of The Music Industry As We Know It?

Spotted on: Digital Music News

The folks at Forrester Research recently published an 18 page paper on the decade long decline in music sales. The article points to the idea that the shift in music sales is permanent, thanks to the Internet. I haven’t read the paper, but thanks to the blogosphere, information abounds.

The Forrester paper predicts half of all music sales will be digital by 2011, but that the boost will not make up for lost revenue in CD sales.

The paper predicts that subscription services will only grow “modestly”, and (no surprise here) that DRM will die.

In other words, technology is the future of the music business.

A synopsis on Cnet points to some of the concrete data in the report:
“A Q3 2007 survey of more than 5,000 U.S. adults with online access showed that 94% of them still listen to the radio, and on average spend 43% of their overall audio-listening time with radio–far ahead of #2, CDs, which occupy only 20% of listeners’ time.” – Radio and streaming audio are still powerful tools for listeners, and in the era of choice, people are exercising their freedom to choose.

“…the survey showed that 62% of the subjects listen to music files on a PC, while only 43% of them listen to music on an MP3 player. Even 48% of them listen to Internet radio.” – True convenience isn’t defined by product availability or features, it’s defined by the individual.

The paper also suggests that corporate sponsorship and advertising will become a major factor in platinum music success.

While this is a comprehensive analysis of the music industry, it’s not really new information. Technology has become the key to the future of music, and I believe that the future of music will be more artists selling less albums. Labels will have less investing in broader catalogs, and artists’ will become more business minded, using the resources of labels instead of being exploited by them.

Bottom Line: The music industry isn’t collapsing, it’s evolving. Welcome to the future.

Speak Clearly (Jargon on a Tangent)

Spotted on: New York Times, Globe and Mail
As the end of the year statistics for the music industry are released, I keep noticing a common tone of these articles. They all seem to be written about the six major record labels, and iTunes. As an artist and independent label owner (ergo, part of the music industry), these articles seem counter-intuitive to the way my peers and I conduct ourselves.

“Yet the industry as a whole still remains uncertain” is my favorite quote from this article. What is uncertain about the industry? People continue to buy music they enjoy, and more of them are buying it online. This has made it easier for anyone with ambition to get into the game. The only unclear thing I see is the fate of these transnational conglomerates.

So the major labels finally accept we don’t want to pay more than ten bucks for CDs, and we don’t like DRM. Somehow, no matter how much money these huge companies make, they are continually complaining about what they are losing. If they focus on what’s missing and wrong with their model, it takes the attention off why their model used to work. The NYT article states that ‘some estimates’ put the annual economy of music at around $75 billion. So what does that number really mean?

The music economy is vast, and a huge chunk of it rests in the hands of a few companies. These are the same companies that built their empire by taking the creative ownership over music in an unclear way, or by inventing a myriad of operating fees and loans to assess to artists like student loans. It’s a similar story to how Europeans ‘bought’ Manhattan. You offer someone a gift, or a show of support, and you ask for something. Instead of explaining what you are going to take, you smile and get them to agree to it. Once they sign a piece of paper, you force them to agree to your interpretation of the words through litigation, or worse. In the latter case, it was genocide, in the former, it is the complete monopolization of the music that we listen to.

Musicians have been getting this treatment since the phonograph was invented. Look at the story of the Funk Brothers (for those who don’t know, they were the Motown backup band from 1959-1972). This group of musicians played on more hit albums than any band in music history, and no one even knows who they are (Motown is now owned by Universal, btw). Like so many other extraordinary musicians, fame and success was pushed out of their reach, as the music they created went on to make a fortune.

So where is all that money? If this NYT article is any indicator, the only ones talking are the major labels. Do you think they’re going to present an unbiased opinion? These major corporations are complaining about how much content we aren’t paying for, and how their sales are down, and the whole time they are becoming more valuable companies.
According to a recent Globe and Mail article, there have been about 20 songs sold for every iPod bought. In fact, iPod users are not buying massive amounts of music like people did when CD Players were first introduced. The main source of the article is Josh Bernoff, a well known media and entertainment analyst. In fact, Mr. Bentoff notes that there is a huge slump in music sales in the second half of 2006. People are converting their CDs for use on other platforms. It would seem that people (known as consumers by these corporate monoliths) only want to buy the same product once. And who can blame us?

Which brings us back to the major labels, and the NYT article. The article points out that major labels are now asking for a cut of artist’s tour and merchandise revenue. Apparently, this has become a standard practice in major label deals. So on one side of their face, the major labels are crying poverty, and saying they need to take more from their artists. Yet in the same article, there are admissions that the companies are growing in value. Can you say cognitive dissonance?

Freedom of choice in music is infectious, and the supply has truly outpaced the demand. The days of an album sitting at number one are gone, and this a great thing for those of us who do not have access to mainstream press and media outlets. People buy more CDs when they are reasonably priced, and artists are still selling albums at the ridiculous prices. The major labels cry that they have to protect their interests with DRM, when their customers mostly use more than one format for listening to music. Music is a form of expression that is meant to be shared, not kept to oneself. The technicalities of software licensing and piracy are not applicable to music, and DRM is another way of saying we’re not buying art, we’re buying a product. And worse, that a CD album is different thing that an MP3 album, or even a .wma album. People aren’t that easily fooled, though. Sales reflect it.

Clearly, lots of people are buying music, and most of it is going to the huge companies to dole out as they please. People don’t buy music because it’s on the radio, or plastered in magazines, they buy it because it moves them. Major labels use record spins and downloads as a measure of success, when they are paying for the spins and driving downloads with ubiquitousness rather than genuine interest. Their multi platinum artists bounce up and down their charts like a basketball, and they refuse to see that’s how we want it. They want to tell us what a CD is worth, and tell us how we can listen to our music. These business practices only work when you have a strangelhold. In most other industries, a company is required to respond to their customers needs to stay in business. When your business model is based on dictating people’s choices, it’s no wonder that freedom of choice is such a threat. The means of production continue to only grow, and our choices with them. The 21st century king of the hill is not the only choice, it is the one the customer enjoys the most.

Music doesn’t seem to speak for itself anymore in their eyes. These companies view artistic output in the same way they view the final result: as a product. Their industry trends are an academic discussion that has completely left the real world. They could have conducted an informal phone poll to come up with the conclusion that CDs are overpriced. Record shoppes are paying more than the iTunes price for an album in some cases. The real issue is what people are willing to pay for, and to deal with that, you must listen, not dictate.
2006 is coming to a close, and the very foundations of how music is distributed and sold began a major transformation this year. According to Josh Bernoff, we’ll all be going digital by 2010. The major labels are slicing up the pie already, but in the age of choice, they may end up with empty plates.




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