State of Mind of The Art

Spotted on: NYU Archives

Here’s a paper titled “Does Chatter Matter? The Impact of User-Generated Content on Music”. It’s a study in how blogs and and social networking sites are impacting music sales. The study did not include any analysis on radio or internet broadcasting as a variable. Since this a very long and convoluted paper, I’ll give you the highlights.

(a) the volume of blog posts about an album is positively correlated with future sales
(b) greater increases in an artist’s Myspace friends week over week have a weaker correlation to higher future sales
(c) traditional factors are still relevant – …a number of reviews from mainstream sources … tended to have higher future sales.

People naturally look to others for opinions. Music recommendation is part of this phenomenon. When people put time and effort into good blogs, readers find value in the content and message. With MySpace, the promotion of music in top friends can be a powerful recommendation tool. And album reviews and ratings are factors in people’s buying habits.

The study was conducted for four weeks before and after an album’s release, and the sales data was based on Amazon’s top sellers of physical units.

The study discovered that mainstream album ratings did not relate to online or consumer ratings. Blog postings had the strongest relationship to sales. Higher blog post volumes and higher percentage changes in Myspace friends corresponded to increased weekly sales in the future.

They also concluded that blog posts had a larger impact on sales than MySpace, and they hypothesized that was due to a credibility gap. MySpace allows for passive involvement, while reading blogs is a more active pursuit. Also, critical acclaim in reviews did not have the impact on sales that they expected.

Ultimately, the study was unable to determine whether or not blog chatter actually causes sales, as there were too many undetermined variables. Blog chatter does on some level represent the buzz around an album, making it an expected phenomenon that it had an impact.

Here’s a quote form the conclusion of the article:

“We analyzed the usefulness of blogs and social networks, as well as reviews in
consumer, online media, and mainstream media, in predicting album sales in the four weeks before and after the album’s release date. We found that the most significant variable is blog chatter or the volume of blog posts on an album, with higher numbers of posts corresponding to higher sales.

Higher percentage changes in Myspace friends may also be significant, although the results here were not consistent … We find that the average consumer rating is significant, while the number of consumer reviews is not … Average consumer ratings better predict[ed] sales than average mainstream media ratings.

Although we found that user-generated content is a good predictor of music album sales, our analysis showed that traditional factors cannot be ignored. While independent label releases with extremely high blog chatter can sell even more units than major label releases, our findings estimated that the average major label release sold approximately twelve times more than the average independent label release. We also found that the higher the number of mainstream media reviews, the greater the sales.”

Bottom Line: The results of this study suggest that user-generated content should be considered seriously by record labels.

Spotted on: Freep.com

Here’s a great article about the new marketing methods we’ll be seeing in 2008.  We will begin to see large scale experiments in subscription based music distribution and other models which eliminate a pay by the track model (such as Imeem).  The death of DRM may come this year, as three of the Big Four labels are already in the process of abandoning it.  There are rumors of deals in the works between major labels and ISPs (internet service providers) to offer unlimited downloads or more bandwidth, and we can expect to see multiple collectible versions of albums released.

As the shift in music sales hits overdrive into the digital realm, 2008 is shaping up to be the year the major labels begin to adapt to environment.  The big question left is: how will artists break into the big time?

Bottom Line:  The Big Four are finally entering the digital revolution.

Spotted on: CMJ

The RIAA is funded by the big four record labels, to the tune of around $130 million per year for each label. EMI was recently bought by a private group, and are now considering drastically cutting their investment to the lobbying and enforcement arm of the music industry.

Given that the RIAA’s legal moves over the last few years have been disastrous at best, it’s a great sign for artists that the RIAA’s financial base may diminish significantly. The amount of money that the RIAA has spent suing mothers and college students as been astronomical, and has led to a severe loss of credibility toward the record business in the public eye. Let’s take a moment to look at what a world without the RIAA might look like.

Without constant legal pressure to buy, audiences would begin to feel confident that albums they buy are supporting artists’ careers (this is part of consumer confidence). File sharing would continue, but people would be more willing to buy music they love knowing that they aren’t labeled as criminals anymore. The business model of turning artists into products, overcharging for albums, and using hype instead of quality would fail.

The music industry would become a free market, where any artist with great music and dedication could create a viable career. Rather than a few mega platinum artists, we would begin to see a massive amount of artists selling between 50,000 - 200,000 units on releases. This level of sales can cause an artist to be dropped from a major, but on an indie label, this is a great living for an artist, and a massive success for the label. Royalty rates for artists would also become much higher. Some artists already see similar profits selling 200,000 units with an indie label that they would see selling a million on a major.

New contracts would become the industry standard, similar to Polyvibe’s practice of leasing artist’s copyrights rather than owning them. Artists would have freedom to call the shots in their careers. The industry would shift to artists owning their masters, with labels existing to empower artists rather than to exploit them. Album advances would shrink; the amount of money owed to labels would shrink, too. In the major label world, an artist owes almost every penny the label spends on them. Label investment in artists would become the cost of doing business, rather than a loan.

The practice of shelving albums would become non-existent, as artists would have the ability to have promises for release dates in their contracts. Polyvibe currently includes release dates in our contracts, with a provision that if deadlines are not met, we will set a new release date. We even promise in our contracts that if we do not release an album within a set span of time after receiving masters, the artists is free to go elsewhere with their album. This type of provision would be standard fare, as well as other artist protection clauses.

Marketing, promotion, and booking companies would become the major players in breaking artists. The media will flock to what people want instead of what the Big Four tell them to promote. New and far reaching models and methods of grass roots promotion will become the norm. Music quality will again become the primary factor in an artist’s success; promotion and hype will be a second tier service. Radio will begin to offer a wider variety.

Without the ability to force legislation in their favor, major labels would become the victim of a music economy they no longer control. Consider that what allows major labels to force low quality music down our throats at high prices is their ability to grab politicians ears, to threaten us with lawsuits, and their near domination of media exposure and radio. We are now at the tail end of a 60 year monopoly on the music business. Rats swarm off of sinking ships, a perfect analogy for the exodus of mega-artists from major labels (getting off the ship, not the rats). In this new music environment, there will be dozens (maybe hundreds) of popular labels, and everyone will have the opportunity to create success.

Bottom Line: Without the RIAA, the major label business model will be obsolete, and a new paradigm and renaissance for music will appear within five years.

Spotted on: Gar Lives

Steve Albini speaks about DIY music promotion and bands operating in the music business.

On the surface, this may appear like an obvious question. Album sales measure the number of people who buy an artist’s music. Let’s look a little deeper at what album and track sales are an actual measure of.

Many artists that experience high volumes of downloads on P2P networks also experience brisk sales. The days of mega-platinum albums are pretty much at an end, so I’m defining brisk sales as between 50,000 to 7 million units sold. This is abroad spectrum, as it includes middle tier artists as well. The future of music will most like include far more middle tier artists, making a decent living, and fewer multi million dollar POP sensations.

The actions of Radiohead, Nine Inch Nails, and Saul Williams are not meant to devalue music to nothing. These artists want people to buy their music. They pay their mortgages, buy their gas, and feed their kids off music sales and gigs. The intention behind these artists’ actions are to move forward a major shift in the music business. The sooner major labels are out of the picture, the sooner our culture can have a conversation about the value of music. It;s great that people can choose how much they want to pay to support artists. At the same time, all of us in the middle or lower tiers of the industry cannot sustain a vibrant career without revenue. Digital music sales are expanding rapidly; obviously people are buying music.

Consider that people can get almost any music they want for free. With a small amount of effort, any album can be found, downloaded, and added to a collection as an MP3. So when people do buy music, what does it measure?

The Love of the Music

Album and track sales measure artist support, and appreciation of the music itself. When major albums are leaked well in advance of release dates and still sell well, it’s clear that the people buying it don’t have to. Why would people buy something they can get for free? It’s not consistent with a capitalist mentality.

Music is in a post capitalist environment, and totally uncharted territory for any commodity. There is no scarcity of music, and the supply outstrips the demand by miles. When people buy an album, they are saying “I like this music or artist enough to support them. I want them to continue to make great music, and I am moved and touched by what they create.”

Sales dynamics and trends for non-major label releases follow a completely different set of rules than mainstream music sales do. Mega-Artists that are joining the ranks of independent musicians aren’t breaking new ground as much as they are creating a public awareness of the way the music business works for most of the artists in it. For those of us in the trenches of our careers, they are putting a spotlight on how we do business.

Free downloads from major artists are simply a proving ground that in the post major label era of music, people will still buy music they support. The only difference between downloading an album for free on an artist site or off Bit Torrent is the amount of effort one has to put in (i.e. clicking a link instead of typing a name into a search prompt).

Although accurate sales totals for In Rainbows won’t be available till the end of the year, it’s clear people are willing to pay for music when they are not forced to. Now that big time acts are involved in the independent music world, there’s no denying that people buy music they love, even if it’s free. The only thing that has changed with In Rainbows is the kind of market analysis we are seeing in major media publications. Major labels can’t whitewash entertainment news about the reality of the business anymore.

When people have access to the music they want for free, and without being treated like criminals, supporting the artist is a natural action to take. it’s when we are treated like criminals, or asked to pay large sums of money for long dead artists, that the public begins to resent buying music.

The Bottom Line: Album sales no longer measure marketing ability or brand placement, they measure people’s love of the music.

What do you think?

What do album sales measure?

Are Radiohead/Saul Williams/NIN breaking new ground, are are they amplifying a message that most of us already hear?